Champions League final

Okay, I guess I have to talk about this, huh? Over at Sven's, I predicted Milan 2 - Liverpool 1. God, I hate being right.

Even with that, though, I think we did a lot of things right. I was a little dubious when I heard that we weren't planning on man-marking Kaka, since he's pretty much the conduit for all of Milan's attacks. But the zonal marking worked really well, especially in the first half. As opposed to the first half in 2005, where they were running all over us and pretty much destroying the defense, the midfield managed to restrain Kaka really effectively for a lot of the game. In the first half, too, we were getting a lot done down the right flank -- I've been a critic of Pennant before, but he was more effective in this game than I've seen him be in a lot of others. My only thing with him here is that he tended to hold the ball for too long before trying to send in a cross, so defenders had time to get back and cover him. He was definitely more effective than Zenden, though, who seemed to be still recovering from whatever injury he had. Even at full fitness, though, Zenden? Not really a winger. Ugh. Overall, though, we had more shots and were definitely attacking more than Milan, so I felt pretty good going into halftime.

And then the flukiest goal ever happened. Conceding free kicks in that area is always dangerous with Pirlo in the Milan team, but this was a really horrible way to concede the first goal, and the worst possible time to do it. Also, god, I hate Inzaghi.

Milan managed to get more of the upper hand in the second half, but it didn't really go all to hell until we decided to take off Mascherano (taking off Zenden was a good idea, and probably should have happened sooner). Without someone tailing Kaka more attentively, and with Liverpool getting tired -- they hadn't played a full match for ten days or so -- the second goal was almost inevitable. I don't know who that Liverpool defender is who's walking back there, but man. You just can't be that slack in a final, against a team like Milan. Gah. Sloppy, sloppy play, from the midfield on, and you just can't let Inzaghi play himself onside like that. He's so annoying, and I hate trying to defend against guys like that, because they just hover and make it really difficult to mark them. Oh, and also, he's a ratfaced little bastard. Seriously, hate that guy.

So eventually we got a goal back, but it was really too little, too late. Especially with all the timewasting Milan did -- I haven't been able to find video of Inzaghi's ridiculous faked injury, but seriously. I used to think that Milan didn't dive that much, but no.

Even with that, though, I'm proud of my team. They played well overall, but the squad as a whole still isn't strong enough for the 4-5-1 to work to win games. If we had a real left-winger or a stronger striker, this could have worked. (I love Kuyt, but he works a lot without getting great results.) So I think we got a lot of the strategy right, but we're not there yet in terms of the squad. It sucks, and I think Liverpool were the better team for most of this game, but sometimes that's not what matters. I'm glad we're not making excuses, but we've got to strengthen the squad this summer. Two Champions League finals in three years is amazing, but we've got to start challenging for the Premiership as well, too.

Matchday 3 -- Liverpool/Bordeaux

Reina's socks are bothering me. Why don't they match the rest of his kit? It was incredibly distracting, but in this case, being distracted from the game wasn't entirely bad. Liverpool didn't play badly, exactly, but they sure didn't play as well as they could have. And it wasn't sloppiness out of desperation or desire to score, either -- it just mostly looked like they couldn't really be bothered. Luis Garcia did his Luis Garcia thing and missed a couple of easy, easy chances. Crouch again demonstrated his amazing ability to be nearly seven feet tall and no good in the air. Really, the only area where Liverpool did well, I thought, was the left side. I continue to be a big fan of Mark Gonzalez, and he and Riise linked up well for the most part. I'd like to see that pairing in the league on a more regular basis.

Also. Boys. How long have we had zonal marking for corners? A couple of seasons, right? Okay. In that case, y'all should be a lot better at it. Like, a LOT. There's no excuse for almost giving up two incredibly soft goals like that. I'm not sure why this is still such an issue for them, but at this point, it really shouldn't be anymore.

Gah. They won, so I should be happy. But the same issues they had last season aren't going away, and they've picked up a lot of defense problems and general malaise to go with them. Here's hoping they finally show up for the season against Man U Sunday. If they don't? Honestly, there goes their chance of challenging for the title, I think.

5-0 is less fun from this side.

Oh my god, Liverpool. Allowing three goals in the last five minutes? That's not the way to set defensive records, boys. I know part of this is because Steve Finnan's out injured and Rafa's trying to give the new boys some experience, and give Dudek his once-a-season run out. (Does anyone know what happened to Daniel Agger, by the way? He hasn't played in any of the friendlies. Is he injured, too, or did they sell him and not tell anyone?) But still. Even with all that, this is not the best way to go into the Champions League qualifier. Which is, you know, WEDNESDAY. I'm just saying. You need to get it together, unless you want to prove Mourinho right. And really, do you want to live in that world? I don't.

England/Trinidad and Tobago

Well, I guess England wasn't taking notes on the Spain game, because, wow, that was pathetic. Ten minutes of solid play at the end, but the eighty minutes before that were completely wretched. I'm happy for Crouch and Steven (and really happy Crouch didn't do the robot again), but I can't be happy at all with that performance, especially when you remember Trinidad finished fourth in CONCACAF. The biggest issues in today's game:

1. The midfield still isn't working well together. Steven, when he's defending, completely disappears, leaving Lampard to try to make the kind of shots Steven normally takes. Considering that Lampard had about five shots, and no goals, and Steven scored with his first shot, why is Steven still stuck defending? Oh, right. England can pack 24 tubes of toothpaste, but forgot to bring along a real holding midfielder.

2. Owen's first touch has yet to return, and Crouch was incredibly wasteful. I don't know why we brought Walcott, since he's clearly never going to get a game. But on his current form, Owen needs to be dropped. I adore him, y'all know that, but he's obviously not match-fit yet -- hell, Rooney looked better than he did, and he's barely got a foot. His first touch has gone to pieces, and he's just not there. Crouch, on the other hand, seems to have been reading the papers too much. I like him and all, but he's not the new Maradona. He needs to forget the bicycle kicks, take some time, and get the shots right.

3. John Terry's the only reason that wasn't a 2-0 loss. It hurts me to praise Terry too extravagantly, but his defending was the only good thing about most of the game. It shouldn't take a flight over the goal line to keep a clean sheet against T&T, but since it did, I'm glad he was there.

It didn't cost you here, boys, but it should have. And it sure as hell will in the next round, whether you get Ecuador or Germany. Get it together. The Guardian was being generous here -- you were extremely lucky to get a result, let alone win.

Spain/Ukraine

Oh, Spain. Don't toy with me. I don't want to get my hopes up -- I've read your record in World Cups.

However, that was a pretty sweet game. I can only hope England was watching, and taking notes.

England/Paraguay

Well, that was fun. Get an early goal, try for the rest of the half, sort of, to get another one. About an hour in, replace a striker with a midfielder, then replace your best attacking midfielder with Owen Hargreaves. For the last ten minutes, keep the ball in your own half, just to make sure all your fans traumatized by the memories of Euro 2004 suffer flashbacks. Hang on for dear life, and then pretend there's nothing wrong with that. Bah.

I'm still not convinced by the Gerrard/Lampard midfield partnership. It just looked to me like the best they could do was have Lampard try to hit those shots from about 40 yards out, while Steven sat back and defended the best he could. I don't think he did all that badly, but I'll argue all day that Steven's way more effective going forward -- they were about even on goals scored this season, and if you don't count the one of Lampard's that were penalties or free kicks, then it changes the ratio. Also, which one of them scored the goal of the season? Steven was brilliant at the end of the regular season, so I'd give him the attacking role in a heartbeat. If either of England's strikers did at all well alone, I'd be evangelizing 4-5-1 right now. As it is, though, I think this is the best we've got. They just need to lock the two of them in a room until they figure it out.

I'm a little bit disappointed in Sven, though. I got all excited when he called up Theo Walcott, thinking he had gone crazy and decided to take some risks in his last tournament ever. But with the way the game went today, apparently not. I really really hate the whole sit-back-and-defend school, and I especially hate it when that lead is just one goal. I'm a Liverpool fan -- after the Champions League final in 2005 and the FA Cup final this year, I've pretty much learned that no lead is insurmountable. (And do I really need to mention Euro 2004 again?) It didn't cost England this time, since Santa Cruz was off form, but it'll come back to bite them in the ass if they make it to the knockout stages.

Quick things about the other games today:
1. God, how awesome is Shaka Hislop? Even taking away how great a name "Shaka" is, that was an incredible performance. I mean, Sweden wasn't exactly on fire, but still. All the credit in the world to him.
2. So I started off watching Argentina/Ivory Coast as a neutral. I wasn't thrilled with Argentina's goals, but I wasn't disappointed either. And then Argentina started diving, and they kept showing Maradona in the crowd, and yeah. I'm completely cheering for the Ivory Coast now, Drogba and all.

Text messages sent during the FA Cup final.

"3-3 at full time. Goals from Cisse and Steven (two). Will text you final."

"And now extra time. I love Steven so much."

"Seriously gonna die."

"PENALTIES. GONNA DIE. GIVE MY LOVE TO ALL."

"WE DID IT. THREE-ONE ON PENALTIES. I LOVE STEVEN, RIISE, AND DIDI. ALSO YOU."

This is what happens when you have promised to text people updates on the final, and then something like this happens. I don't know what's happened to my team -- apparently we've decided since Istanbul that the only good win is a ridiculously dramatic one. It's bad for my heart, my fingernails, and my friends, but man. I can't say I'd trade it for being, like, a Chelsea fan.

Poor West Ham, though. Penalties are an awful, awful way to lose a final, and they were the better team for most of the match. That's just what happens when you go up against the comeback specialists of Europe, though.

The week that was

Like I said, a lot of stuff's been going on in Liverpool-land lately, and a lot of it's been really important, too. (Other stuff, not directly relating to Liverpool, has been going on, too. To that I say -- 1) shut up, Chelsea, 2) please get better, Wayne Rooney, and 3) I'm sorry I jinxed you, Mr. Scolari.) Herewith, a quick review:

1. The FA Cup semi. Dude. How awesome was that? I know our overall record against Chelski isn't that great, but we sure seem to win the ones that count. It was so good to see how completely we dominated in the first hour. Once they pulled one back, it became more a matter of holding on and praying, but for once our luck held out. (That Joe Cole miss? That was karma for Robben getting Reina sent off the last time we met.) Garcia frustrates me sometimes with his inconsistency, but he does have the knack of scoring goals when he needs to. They aren't exactly the goals you'd expect him to score, but I'm not complaining. We were helped out a lot by Mourinho's completely insane team selection -- dude, all your wingers are suddenly crap? Uh-huh -- but I think we did pretty well playing our advantage. I don't know what made Chelski think they could take on our midfield, but we've denied them the double, and it makes me happy. I don't want to take West Ham for granted, but I'm so happy we're in the final.

2. The PFA player of the year, Steven Gerrard. This really surprised me, but I completely think it was deserved. He's now on 21 goals for the season and hasn't really been out of form all season. There's also the little matter of him pretty much grabbing the team and throwing them back into the Champions League final last year. I've said a lot of this before, but I was really expecting one of the Chelsea players to win, just because they've been so dominant in the league. For once I was pleasantly surprised. (Also, the way he keeps carrying the trophy around with him continues to bring me joy.)

3. Liverpool/West Ham. I watched this, but I can't say it was a very thrilling game, with neither team fielding the side they're going to play in the FA Cup final. It was good to see Cisse finally remember what he's there for -- I'm actually liking him out on the wings, and I guess it'll do until we can buy some real wingers over the summer. It's a testament to the strength of the side that our B-team, pretty much, can still play that well. (Though, Garcia? What the hell was that? I agree it was a harsh red, but an elbow to the back? You were on for all of a minute. No reason.)

4. Liverpool/Villa. This wasn't that great of a game, either, but man. How about that second Gerrard goal? I'm not a huge fan of our tendency to step off the gas once we've got a goal -- it almost cost us against Chelski, and it could've cost us here, too. I understand the virtues of defending a lead, but it's not very interesting play, and when that lead is only a goal, it's not that smart, either. If any team should know about comebacks, it's us, so I'd think we'd be a bit more wary of getting complacent once we lead. We're really better at counterattacking, which is somewhat defensive by nature, but taken too far, that's more than a little dangerous. If Villa had been able to finish anything, they could easily have been ahead. I know we only have one league game left, but that's something Liverpool could stand to work on for next season.

5. Finally, to the person who found me by searching for "I love Xabi Alonso"? So do I. However, I have nothing further to offer you. Sorry.

CL quarters roundup

Okay, Blogger, I guess I didn't really want to upload a picture anyway. Gah. Will deal with that later, when it's less a Monday after I got no sleep. So what I opened this window to talk about was the Champions League quarterfinals. My prediction ratio has gotten progressively worse -- five of eight for the round of 16, two of four now. Ick. However, this time I was happy to be wrong in both cases, so it's good.

Tuesday's matches:
Milan/Lyon -- So apparently I was wrong, and Lyon aren't going to win it all. I can't really say that Milan deserved this win, though; Inzaghi's great at poaching goals, but the run of play in the first half was definitely in favor of Lyon. They just lost their concentration for the last few minutes, which is something you can't really afford to do when you're playing a team with Shevchenko on it. Overall, though, this was a really good game, and I'm glad I caught it live. Milan seem to have learned something about dramatic comebacks from playing Liverpool last season; they may have left Dida traumatized for life, though, since he was lucky not to ship more goals than he did. Only poor finishing on the part of Lyon's strikers prevented this from being 3-1 to them. I was kinda cheering for Lyon here, just because I don't like to be proved wrong, but I'm just as happy for Milan to go through. Maybe happier, actually. As much as I get amusement from Lyon having a player who goes by "Fred," I get a lot more joy out of watching Sheva and Kaka run around and jump on each other. (What? I'm not made of stone here, people.)

Villarreal/Inter -- Inter should have won this, I agree. However, I don't think attacking the players at the airport will make them want to do better, guys. ESPN didn't have this live, so I didn't see any of it -- I just kept a close eye on the Gamecast, and prayed for the away goals rule to work its magic. I'm not a huge Villarreal fan, but I was really hoping that all three Italian teams wouldn't make it through, and they obliged me. It's nothing really specific against Inter; I just can't seem to care about most Italian teams, and Inter seem like the archetypal Italian side to me. Too defensive by half. Besides, it's always fun when the underdogs pull off a surprise. Having two underdogs (these guys and Arsenal) make it to the semis is sort of an embarrassment of riches, but I am really not complaining. I think Villarreal are out in the next round, but I've been saying that for a while now, and they've shown surprising resilience.

Wednesday's matches:
Barca/Benfica -- And finally, normal service is resumed. Not that I don't like Benfica . . . oh, wait. I totally don't like Benfica. Who knocks the reigning champions out? Lame. I was really surprised when the first leg of this ended scoreless, but Barca seem to have found their footing in this second leg, and Benfica could only hold out so long against two of the three best players in the world. (I've somehow developed a bizarre affection for Ronaldinho. It's maybe because of the Nike ads, but it was developing before that. I can't even explain it, but I'm worried about myself.) This is another one ESPN didn't oblige me by showing, so I don't have a lot to say about it, except that I'm glad that Benfica aren't going any further. They didn't deserve to go as far as they did. Not that I'm bitter. Barcelona are completely the favorites now, but I'm definitely not discounting the winner of the other semi.

Arsenal/Juventus -- I'm especially not discounting the winner of the other semi if it's Arsenal. I'm really surprised by how completely Juve did not show up to these games. After the first leg, they had a battle to make it through, but it was definitely doable. Not if you don't score, though, and they just couldn't get it done. Lehmann had some decent saves, but on the whole, Arsenal were just not tested that much. They pretty much conceded the midfield battle early on. Arsenal didn't try incredibly hard to score on the second leg; there were some good shots, and Henry (or maybe Fabregas) went on a great run at the end that could've easily been a goal. (I realize Henry and Fabregas look nothing alike, but it's been a few days since I watched the match, and studying for Con Law has taken up that room in my brain.) Arsenal just had to hold on to their lead from the first leg, and Juve never really looked like scoring, especially not after they lost Nedved. (A note on that: dear ESPN commentators, please decide if it's Nyed-ved or Ned-vyed. Stick with one.) This wasn't quite as thrilling as the Milan/Lyon game, or the first leg of this tie, but I was really happy to see Le Arse make it through.

So now I'm saying the final will be Arsenal and Barcelona. And I'm picking Arsenal to win it all. They're totally the new Liverpool.

5-1!

Oh, that's where my team went. They were just . . . hiding? Napping? I don't know, but I'm glad they've decided to come back. I'd like to see this momentum stick around till the end of the season, too; I mean, not every game can be 5-1, but most of the toughest games are done -- they've played Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man U already, so I think the biggest test remaining is probably Bolton (and in terms of grudge matches, Everton). Now it really just comes down to waiting for Man U to slip up so we can maybe snatch second. I'm glad to see Fowler finally get his first goal; he's been unlucky with a couple of those offside calls. Pressure's on for Cisse, now, though, since he's the only striker who didn't score on Wednesday. I mean, I think he's gone in May anyway, but he's still floating around the periphery of the French national side. And in purely selfish terms, I want him to score a lot, so he'll get more money when they sell him to bring in Michael Owen. Not enough that we have to keep him around, but you know. Enough that we can get back some of the 14 million Houllier paid for him. (14 million? And we couldn't buy Owen last summer why?)

In other good Liverpool news, Rafa Benitez is sticking around. I was vaguely worried that he'd be leaving in the summer, since they're out of the CL. But, as my con law prof said, "smart rats leave the ship," they don't hop on while it's sinking. Rafa's a smart rat, and Real's still pretty much a sinking ship. I'm kind of realizing that he'll probably go there eventually, but I'm glad it won't be for awhile. The turnaround that's already happened at Liverpool since his arrival is amazing, and I really want them to be serious title contenders next season. We'll have to buy well, be lucky, and put a voodoo curse on John Terry to do it, but it's a lot more likely with Rafa staying then if he left.

And it's about damn time, FIFA. Maybe now clubs will start policing their fans a bit more -- you'd think they would've wanted to long before this, since being notorious racists isn't really the best PR. (Exhibit A: Lazio.) I don't know how willing the national FAs are going to be to effect this, since they're the ones refusing to impose bigger fines as is. At least it's a step, though, and a pretty big one. I guess once Rio Ferdinand calls you out, you've reached rock bottom. I mean, who wants to get faced by a guy who shows up to training on his day off and "forgets" drug tests? Certainly not Sepp Blatter. And for once, good for him. (Yes, I know FIFA and UEFA are completely different. However, the problem is the same, and FIFA's action pre-empts UEFA.)

Finally, hi to Du Nord! Thanks for the link! His Michael Ballack Watch feature is hilarious. Everyone should go read.

I suppose I should pay some attention to the Champions League, huh? Well, Ajax duly made me look foolish, like I thought they would. Which leaves some pretty interesting ties in the quarterfinals, that I'm not going to talk about here. This post is long enough already. (That's called a cliffhanger.)

Worst week ever.

If anyone was wondering, I did survive Liverpool's crashing out of the Champions League. I wasn't happy about it, but I made it through. And actually, I'm doing pretty well on my predictions: five-for-seven so far. I was just wrong about Liverpool and Milan. (And honestly, I'll probably be wrong about Inter. I've accepted that.) I'm throwing my support to Lyon (dark horses) and Arsenal (last English team).

As far as the Arsenal game, they deserved the win. I wish it hadn't come from another of Steven's mishit backpasses, but they played better than Liverpool. Xabi didn't deserve that red, though; everyone was falling over on the pitch, and he just had bad luck in colliding with Flamini in the process. Also, shut up, Senderos. Okay, that's Liverpool's Week in Review. Knocked out of the CL, lose to Arsenal. Next week, someone runs over the mascot.

So, onto positive notes. First, everyone hates Jose Mourinho now. Second, Liverpool lasted in the Champions League longer than 1) Everton, 2) Manchester United, and 3) Chelsea. Third, we are still in the FA Cup. It's not quite as shiny as the Champions League, but you know. Still shinier than the Carling Cup. Dude, after this last week? I have to find positives wherever I can.

I love international breaks.

A great international day for me, since all three of my teams pulled out wins. The Spain and England ones weren't as solid as I'd like, but hey. Meaningless friendlies, a good break from the Premiership, and the World Cup exactly 100 days away.

England 2 - Uruguay 1. I hereby take back everything I've said about Joe Cole. (His website, though, does give me pause.) And there's Peter Crouch's first international goal! I was skeptical about him early on, but he's come back to form recently. I think he's definitely earned a spot at the World Cup. (Discussion question of the night: what does Sven have against Jamie Carragher?) I only listened to this game, and didn't see it live, but it sounded like a pretty good game overall, though I'm a bit concerned that playing at Anfield made England similarly unable to convert easy chances. I was impressed by Carrick, though not as much by Bent.

Best moment of the game: compare the numbers on Crouch's shirt here and here. And these are the people we're trusting to find the new England manager?

Spain 3 - Ivory Coast 2. OK, Spain is my secondary team, and I'm happy they won, but this is really an excuse to talk about how much I love Xabi Alonso. The Liverpool-City game, he had a copiously bleeding head wound, got 10 stitches for it, and then tried to come back on. The ref was all, "Dude, you're still bleeding, no." He got back in for about five or ten minutes, but had blurry vision, and did I mention TEN STITCHES? It was awesome. And then he and Garcia give this interview today, and I love them both even more.

USA 1 - Poland 0. I won't lie, I kinda wanted this one to go the other way. My brief love affair with the USMNT may be over. Those PANTS on McBride. Jesus. I do have to respect both those teams for playing through a snowstorm. By the time that game ended, the field was completely white. It was beautiful, but must've sucked for them. However, I had to watch the second half on mute, because the commentators are godawful. Three notes:

1. Every time you say "well-defensed," an English major cries. That English major is me.
2. Keepers are not "in the nets." Nor do they have "shutouts." They keep clean sheets, and they are between the posts. I know you just came over from some other sport, but honestly.
3. Find a better way of saying there haven't been any goals yet than "nothing-nothing." I understand nil-nil sounds silly when you're an American, but still. I could accept zero-zero.

Premiership notes, February 25

What the hell, Sven? You do realize that the only reason Rio's playing there for Man U is that they have no midfield to speak of, don't you? Steven Gerrard's played as a striker before, too -- clearly, let's start him up front! Gah. Just because a player can play well out of his preferred position doesn't prove anything. Ferdinand's clearly a defender, and I don't think the solution to our midfield issues is adding in another player to the mix. Especially when England can USE HIM IN HIS REAL POSITION. I mean, with Sol Campbell's continuing issues, who else are you going to partner John Terry with?

Well, OK, Jamie Carragher's the clear choice. But pretend you're Sven, and inexplicably hate Carra. Judging by this decision, you'd put Peter Crouch into the defense. It's not like we have a glut of good defenders and need to shoehorn Ferdinand into the squad. He has a position he prefers and is better in. I don't know why playing him in midfield is even on the table as an option. Just because Sir Alex does something doesn't make it a good idea -- would you have bought Eric Djemba-Djemba?

For the record, my preferred midfield is Joe Cole, Frank Lampard, Ledley King, and Steven Gerrard out on the right flank. He's been playing there a lot for Liverpool, and that's almost become his preferred position. Since you can't drop Beckham without causing a national crisis, though, I'd settle for Cole, Lampard, Gerrard, and Beckham. You would just have to lock Lampard and Gerrard in a room together until they figured out how to allocate the attacking and holding roles. (And install a video camera in the room. I'd pay for that footage.)

Speaking of what the hell -- Arsenal. I'm actually pulling for them in the Champions League, so it's strange to see them return so quickly to their awful away form in the league. (Won just three? Really, boys?) This does give credence to the "Arsenal are the new Liverpool" theory, though. Arsenal will, however, have to do it without my assistance -- in the form of lucky socks and undaunted pessimism -- that got Liverpool through the Champions League campaign. Sorry.

The Chaaaaaaaaaampions, Part Two

OK, first of all, I thought we'd show up for the Champions League. Instead, we rest Gerrard over a "dead leg," even though he was training yesterday. And then we play Morientes. The hell. The Arsenal game was on a big-screen TV at the law school -- there was a little cadre of us gathered in front of it watching the game. I had just said I was a Liverpool fan, and then that little ticker ran across with "Liverpool 0 - Benfica 1." I may or may not have sworn out loud. At least it's just one goal, and not away. I'm coping.

Anyway. Back to handicapping the Round of Sixteen.

Chelsea/Barcelona -- See, I'm really not sure about this one. Chelsea have the knack of playing like shit and still winning games, while Barca are infinitely more entertaining, but have been in the middle of a little hiccup recently. The buildup to this one's been as dramatic as ever, this time centering around the condition of Chelsea's pitch. I don't know if that'll have affected the mood going into the game. (If people were smart, they'd just ignore every word that comes out of Jose Mourinho's mouth, but that doesn't seem to be a popular option for some reason.) I don't really know how to call this one, so I'll go with my instinct. Thus, Chelsea play very badly and draw at home, but can't hold on away. Therefore Barcelona win it. (In an ideal world, it'd be 5-0 losses both legs, but we can't get what we want.)

Rangers/Villareal -- Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the luckiest teams in the tournament. Villarreal are only here because of Man U's total implosion in the group stage, and Rangers benefited from a fairly easy qualifying group on the way in. I don't really care about these; either way, a team that really shouldn't be here gets a free pass to the quarters. I think I'm going with Villarreal here, though I really have no basis for that judgment other than that their nickname is "The Yellow Submarine" and that amuses me.

Werder Bremen/Juventus -- This should really be a walk for Juve. They've got Serie A all but sewn up, and they were one of the first teams to qualify for the knockout rounds. Bremen have little, if any, experience in Europe, and that may start to tell here. I don't really care for Juve, but I don't really see them not winning this one, and handily. So, as you may have guess, I think Juventus are going to win this.

Ajax/Internazionale -- Right. This is one I'm not interested in at all, really. I've never been able to care much about Inter, and Ajax have a great history in this competition, but haven't lived up to that heritage recently. (As a Liverpool fan, I have carte blanche to point out when other teams are underachievers.) I feel strongly that every good cup competition needs one upset, and since Bayern winning that tie wouldn't be an upset, I'm randomly deciding that this is the upset. So, that means Ajax win. (You may also refer to this as the prediction most likely to make me look like an idiot.)

Finally, a really interesting article on homophobia, sports, and what really happens in the dressing rooms. I'm not sure that I agree with him, but he definitely raises some interesting issues.

The Chaaaaaaaaaaaampions! (Part One)

Oh, y'all, I am so excited. The Champions League starts up again tomorrow! This is my favorite competition in the entire season. (I mean, the World Cup's awesome, but that's only once every four years. The Champions League is every year!) And, yes, before you say it, I liked it best even before Liverpool won it all last season. That just added to my love. So tomorrow kicks off the round of 16 -- there should be a less awkward name for that -- and because I want to make myself look like a fool, I'm going to predict the winners of these ties.

Bayern Munich/AC Milan -- Yeah, this is one of the ones I don't know much about. I've never followed the Bundesliga, and I only vaguely keep up with Serie A. Milan had a struggle in qualifying for the knockout round, and they've not been setting the world afire in their domestic league; yeah, they beat Juve, but they aren't consistent enough to challenge for the title seriously. At least they're ahead of Inter now. Still, though, I'm going with Munich, since their domestic form is better, and I think they're due.

Benfica/Liverpool -- OK, we lucked out with this one. Liverpool's really come a long way from where they were this time last season, without a lot of injury trouble and some good off-season buys. (Robbie Fowler -- what else do you need?) Benfica, on the other hand, are struggling in the league this season. However, as we learned last year, domestic form is no indicator of European form -- also, Liverpool are still in the FA Cup. We've already played more matches than a lot of teams will all season, what with the colossal waste that was the World Club Championship. Tiredness may be a factor, but I think we'll show up for the Champions League, since you know. Defending champions and all. Additionally, Benfica finished second in the weakest qualifying group. I'm saying Liverpool to take this one, but we'll be tested in the next round.

Real Madrid/Arsenal -- You could call this tie the Twilight of the Invincibles, really. Both of these teams have really been struggling this season; as it stands now, Arsenal would have to win it all to be back in the Champions League next year. Real were in a similar situation earlier on. Finishing second in the group didn't help their confidence, and neither did losing their manager. However, since then, they seem to be turning things around. Arsenal, on the other hand? They're coming off a loss to Liverpool, and still haven't figured out a good way to cope with losing Vieira. Despite that, I think they might be the dark horse this time. They have everything to play for, and nothing to lose -- it's all but certain that they have to stay in the Champions League in order to keep Henry around next year. They may lose the first game, but hopefully they'll get some people back from injury in time to pull this one out. (Also, I hate Real, ever since they totally screwed over Michael Owen.) For all these reasons, I'm saying Arsenal, on away goals.

PSV Eindhoven/Olympique Lyonnais -- Remember how I said I didn't know much about Milan/Munich? I know even less about this one. Except both these teams are consistently in the latter stages of this competition; they met in the quarterfinals last season, when PSV needed away goals to advance. After that, Milan needed away goals to beat them in the semis. Lyon's running rampant over Ligue 1, and even Gerard Houllier hasn't been able to halt their momentum. Similarly, PSV's five points clear of Feyenoord in their domestic league. So you could really call this one the battle of the secondary league-leaders. (I didn't say it was catchy.) I don't really prefer one team over the other, but Lyon's been my dark-horse pick to win it all since the first game, so I'm saying Lyon.

The other ties I'll predict tomorrow, since this entry's long enough already. Man, I'm so happy this competition's back. If only I could watch it live -- stupid job interview/Property class.

International notes.

I'm ignoring Liverpool after that defeat to Charlton. Losing to Man U and Chelsea, I can understand. Losing to Charlton comes under the category of moral failing, and as such, I am mad at the entire team. Especially our alleged strikers.

I should really stop laughing every time these ads for the World Cup say "the US national team is a strong contender." Yeah, a strong contender to go three-and-out, maybe.

I've been watching History of Soccer over the past couple of months (what can I say? I'm a slow Netflixer.) Tonight, I watched disc 3, which was about the South American game. Now, Brazil is my longest-running soccer hatred, so I refuse to warm up to them in the slighest. They're practically guaranteed to win in Germany, which would really go against my preferential option for underachievers (Spain, England, Liverpool). And, ok. I fully admit Kaka is insanely talented and pretty, and Ronaldinho's just ridiculous. But as a whole? I hate Brazil, and will cheer for anyone who's playing against them.

Oddly, though, the documentary made me like Argentina, which is a weird feeling for an England fan. I think maybe I've been conflating Argentina with Maradona too much -- I loathe Maradona. Always have. I don't care what sort of gloss you try to put on it: he cheated, and he lied about it for nearly 20 years. Also, there's the whole thing where he failed a drug test and was ejected from the 1994 World Cup. Hate him, always will, can't argue me out of it. Argentina, though, sort of grew on me over the course of the DVD. I mean, they've got a good history, and they're not Brazil, which is a point in their favor. So, World Cup resolution: try to warm up to Argentina. I can't like only European teams. All bets are off if they meet England in the knockout stages, though.

(And now I have US/Japan on in the background, and damn. Japan defends corners even worse than Liverpool -- maybe try marking players? OK, now they scored. Go Japan!)